House-passed health care bill would increase uninsured by 23 million in 2026, nonpartisan analysis projects

The number of uninsured people in the US would increase by 23 million by 2026 if the American Health Care Act (AHCA, HR 1628) as passed by the House of Representatives were enacted, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected in a report issued late Wednesday, May 24, 2017.1 A CBO analysis of a previous version of the AHCA projected that enactment of the legislation would have increased the number of uninsured by 24 million in 2026.

The House on May 4, 2017, narrowly approved the bill.

The release of the CBO report clears the way for the bill to move to the Senate for consideration under the budget reconciliation process, which would make it possible for the Senate to pass the AHCA with a simple majority of 51 votes, rather than 60 votes generally needed to bring legislation up for a vote under Senate rules. Significant changes may be under consideration in the Senate.

Overall, the AHCA would:

  • Reduce federal health care spending;
  • Redesign advanceable, refundable tax credits for individuals who do not have access to employer-sponsored coverage;
  • Restructure and cap federal Medicaid funding to the states;
  • Repeal most taxes and fees enacted under the Affordable Care Act (ACA);
  • Provide $138 billion over 10 years in federal funding for state programs intended to help stabilize and reduce health insurance premiums in the non-group market.

Organizations representing hospitals, physicians, health plans and consumers have issued statements critical of the bill.

Key highlights of the CBO’s analysis of the AHCA as passed by the House are provided below.

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House approves bill to replace key provisions of the Affordable Care Act; All eyes turn to the Senate

The House of Representatives on May 4, 2017, narrowly voted 217-213 to pass the American Health Care Act (AHCA, H.R. 1628). No Democrat voted in favor of the bill and 20 Republicans voted against the bill. As many recall, the House on March 24, 2017, cancelled a planned vote on the AHCA due to a lack of support in the Republican conference.

In the ensuing weeks, three amendments to the AHCA were drafted by House members in an effort to win additional votes for the underlying bill. This ultimately paved the way toward passage in the House today on a slim majority vote. Following the vote, the House went into recess until May 16, 2017.

The AHCA now goes to the Senate for its consideration and likely modification in the coming weeks. Based on the next steps in the process, it may take well into the summer months before a final piece of legislation could be signed into law by President Trump.

The House bill seeks to repeal key provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and enact alternative health care policies that in general would:

  • Redesign advanceable, refundable tax credits for individuals who do not have access to employer-sponsored coverage
  • Restructure and cap federal Medicaid financing to the states
  • Repeal most taxes and fees enacted under the ACA; and
  • Provide $138 billion over 10 years in federal funding for state programs intended to help stabilize and reduce health insurance premiums in the non-group market.

Next week, Deloitte will produce a detailed summary of the AHCA as amended and passed by the House.

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Amidst ongoing debate over future of ACA Exchanges, CMS finalizes rule for 2018 and a timeline for submission of plans

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) last week released a final rule on the 2018 benefit year for Exchanges established under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), as well as a final timeline for health insurers to submit products for federally-facilitated Exchanges and other tools plans will need to submit products for ACA Exchanges for 2018. Notably, the final rule was published in the Federal Register on the same day that health insurers met with CMS Administrator Seema Verma and other Administration officials about the ACA Exchanges.

The final rule is intended to reduce volatility in the non-group and small group health insurance markets, and it finalizes with few changes policies included in a proposed rule published in the Federal Register on February 17, 2017. The final rule was published in the Federal Register on Tuesday, April 18, 2017, and its provisions take effect June 19, 2017. The policies in the final rule include changes requested by health insurers in previous years.

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Republican health care bill would increase number of uninsured, maintain stability in individual market, Congressional Budget Office projects

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) late Monday, March 13, 2017, released its analysis projecting that enactment of the American Health Care Act (AHCA) would increase the number of uninsured Americans by 4 million in 2017, rising to an increase of 14 million by 2018 and to 24 million by 2026.1 Under the AHCA, the total number of uninsured would stand at 52 million in 2026, approximately 19% of the US population under age 65. By comparison, approximately 10% of nonelderly Americans currently are uninsured, and the CBO projects that the uninsured population in the US would remain about that level each year through 2026 under the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

According to the CBO, the nongroup health insurance market “would probably be stable in most areas” under either the ACA or the AHCA.
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House begins consideration of legislation to repeal and replace key provisions of the Affordable Care Act

The House Ways and Means Committee and the House Energy and Commerce Committee today (Wednesday, March 8, 2017) are scheduled to begin marking up the American Health Care Act (AHCA), which would repeal and replace certain provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX) and House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Greg Walden (R-OR) released the draft legislation late Monday, March 6, 2017.

The House Ways and Means Committee has jurisdiction over tax provisions in the legislation, while the House Energy and Commerce Committee has jurisdiction over provisions related to Medicaid.

In general, the draft legislation would maintain the ACA’s tax credits and states’ option to expand Medicaid in their current forms through December 31, 2019. Under the AHCA, new tax credits and Medicaid funding formulas would take effect beginning January 1, 2020.

The draft legislation in its current form would not make changes to the individual tax exclusion for employer-sponsored coverage, or certain ACA health insurance market reforms, including allowing adult children up to age 26 to stay on a parent’s health coverage and a prohibition on denying coverage or rate setting based on an individual’s pre-existing health conditions.

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CMS releases proposed rule intended to provide more certainty on health insurance markets, extends deadlines for plans to file products with Exchanges

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on Wednesday, February 15, 2017, released a proposed rule intended to provide health insurers greater certainty about the individual and small group markets in the 2018 benefit year under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Days later, a CMS division proposed providing plans with more time to file products for the federally-facilitated Exchanges in order to allow time to modify products in response to the proposed changes.

The policies proposed in the regulation generally have been requested by health insurers in previous years.

America’s Health Insurance Plans, a trade group representing insurers, issued a statement, saying, “We appreciate the Administration’s efforts in proposing policies intended to address stability, affordability, and choice, helping consumers get the coverage they need.”

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Regulatory, legislative efforts focused on ACA repeal move forward as Congressional Budget Office releases new health coverage projections

Hours after taking the oath of office on Friday, January 20, 2017, President Trump signed an executive order that opens the door for the secretaries of the departments of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Treasury, and Labor, as well as the leaders of other federal agencies, to take regulatory action to ease requirements under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) or waive or delay enactment of certain provisions.

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Congress poised to begin effort to repeal key provisions of the Affordable Care Act early in 2017

A budget resolution laying the groundwork to repeal key provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will be the first item on the legislative agenda for the Senate in 2017, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced on Tuesday, December 6, 2016.

The move is a central element of an effort being described as “repeal and delay” that Republican congressional leaders have outlined since the November 8, 2016 elections, in which Republicans retained majorities in the Senate and House and Donald Trump was elected President. The plan calls for a vote early in 2017 on legislation that would use the budget reconciliation process to repeal major provisions of the ACA but maintain the availability of premium assistance tax credits for the purchase of health insurance coverage through the ACA Exchanges and expanded eligibility for Medicaid for a transition period of a time to be determined. Some Republicans have called for a transition period of as long as three years, while others have called for a more expeditious transition. The transition period is intended to provide time for Congress separately to develop an alternative health care approach.

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Final open enrollment for ACA health insurance exchanges under President Obama begins: What do the numbers tell us?

The open enrollment period for coverage for 2017 through the health insurance Exchanges created under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) begins today, Tuesday, November 1, 2016. This is the fourth open enrollment period since the Exchanges opened in 2014 and the final open enrollment period of President Obama’s Administration. The open enrollment period will close on January 31, 2017.

Sylvia Mathews Burrell, Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), on October 19, 2016, announced that the Administration expects 13.8 million people to enroll in coverage for 2017 during the open enrollment period. Following the 2012 Supreme Court decision that upheld the ACA’s individual mandate and made it easier for states to opt out of the ACA’s Medicaid expansion, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that 25 million people would be enrolled in coverage through the Exchanges in 2017.1 Notably, enrollment in employer-sponsored coverage has not decreased as CBO projected in 2012, and Medicaid enrollment has exceeded the 2012 CBO projections.

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Major health care regulatory activity still to come under the Obama Administration

As many in the US prepare to shift their attention to the upcoming presidential debates and the final weeks of the campaign, the Obama Administration is poised to release some far-reaching regulations, which will have a significant effect on the health care marketplace, including a final rule on the new Medicare payment law and some changes intended to help shore up the health insurance Exchanges established under President Obama’s signature health care law.

Highlights of some of the most significant regulatory actions still to come in the final months of the Obama Administration are provided below.

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